ROB V: 6* 100% SUPERBOWL 54 + BONUS TOTAL AND PROPS
San Francisco vs. Kansas City,
02/02/2020 18:30 EDT,
Score: 20 - 31
Point Spread: +1½/-105 San Francisco
Rob Vinciletti- Super Bowl 54 Analysis.
Super Bowl LIV will take place on Sunday, February 2. The game will kick off at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET.
Super Bowl 54 will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. This will be the 11th time that the Miami metropolitan area will host a Super Bowl, the most Super Bowls of any host city.
The Super Bowl 54 Selection is on the SF 49ERS. The Niners have the better overall defense which is tell tale in Super Bowl History with the better defensive team taking home the prize in 44 of the 53 prior contests. In fact only one team with a defense ranked outside league average has ever won the SB and KC is ranked outside league average at #17 overall. SF has 5 first round draft picks on the defensive line led By J.Bosa and the #1 pass defense. These guys should get steady pressure on Mahomes. KC will move the ball but they wont have it as easy as they did at home the last 2 games. KC has had everything break right to not have to play a road game in Baltimore to get here. Should they get down here its unlikely they could come back as SF can move the ball in the air and on the ground. SF has the fire power much like KC. The Niners were twice down 13 in their comeback win in their come back win in the Super Dome over a solid Saints team and that was in a more hostile environment than they will be in tonight.
For a top tier system we note that teams like KC that enter the SB on a 7+ game win streak have failed to cover 9 of 12 times. SF led the league in sacks and the last 6 teams to get to the SB have won. SF had a losing season last year. However history reveals a team that is good enough to overcome that and get here have won despite the losing record from a year ago. Jimmy G has an outstanding career record. It seems like the Chiefs may have an edge on offense but a look at the stats show that these two are very close ranked 3rd and 4th this season. In our simulation models which we use each SB as an added Filter we have SF Coming up as the winner. Below is a system that dates to 2002 and pertains to forced interceptions in previous games. As we can see from the sample below, teams like SF who fit this criteria have won the last 6 times.
Feb 05, 2006 Sunday 22 2005 Steelers Seahawks neutral 0-3 7-0 7-7 7-0 21-10 -4.0 47.0 11 7.0 -16.0 -4.5 -11.5 W W U 0
Feb 07, 2010 Sunday 22 2009 Saints Colts neutral 0-10 6-0 10-7 15-0 31-17 5.5 55.5 14 19.5 -7.5 6.0 -13.5 W W U 0
Feb 03, 2013 Sunday 22 2012 Ravens Fortyniners neutral 7-3 14-3 7-17 6-8 34-31 4.0 48.5 3 7 16.5 11.8 4.8 W W O 0
Feb 02, 2014 Sunday 22 2013 Seahawks Broncos neutral 8-0 14-0 14-8 7-0 43-8 2.0 47.0 35 37 4.0 20.5 -16.5 W W O 0
Feb 07, 2016 view Sunday 22 2015 Broncos Panthers neutral 10-0 3-7 3-0 8-3 24-10 4.5 44.0 14 18.5 -10 4.2 -14.2 W W U 0
Feb 04, 2018 view Sunday 22 2017 Eagles Patriots neutral 9-3 13-9 7-14 12-7 41-33 4.0 49.0 8 12 25 18.5 6.5 W W O 0
Feb 02, 2020 view Sunday 22 2019 Fortyniners Chiefs neutral 1.0 54.5.
In closing we will back SF in Super Bowl 54 based on the better overall statistical and historical models.
BONUS Total is on the Under 55 total points.
Bonus Props: Over 6 receptions for George Kittle- Also Over 70 yards
Shortest Touchdown under 1.5 yards
Three straight scores by either team--- Has hit 7 of the last 8 super Bowls
UNDER 31.5 Rush yards for Mahomes ( Has only rusher for more than 30 yards in 7 of his 35 career starts)
OVER Total points in 2nd Quarter as these two were ranked #1 and #2 in 2nd quarter scoring.
Team Fluff -7.5 in the Hallmark Puppy Bowl- Team Fluff is led by Anise a 19 week old Lab Retriever who is said to be the most athletic pup on either side- NO I didnt watch the game film on this.
OVER 1.5 Pass Touchdowns for Jimmy G
Under 80 Yards receiving T. Hill.