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AAA’s NATIONAL LEAGUE “ASSASSIN!”

AAA’s NATIONAL LEAGUE “ASSASSIN!”

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee, 09/04/2014 20:10 EDT, Score: 3 - 2

Money Line: +103 Milwaukee

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Milwaukee Brewers.

I played the Brewers yesterday, and they’d come up short, but I look for the slumping team to finally rally and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. division leader St. Louis. The Cards come in very contented, they’ve won five straight, but I think will run into a buzzsaw today. Note that the home side will benefit greatly here from the expected return of slugger Ryan Braun, who will look to help his team break a season-worst eight-game slide. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Cardinals who would use a dramatic walk off home run in the 9th to win 1-0 and sweep the Pirates in the process yesterday. Conversely, the Brewers were just outscored 17-5 in losing three-straight to the last place Cubs. This is a season defining stretch for Milwaukee though which will play seven games vs. the Cards over the next two weeks (note that St. Louis has won seven of 12 already this year). The Brewers turn to Wily Peralta who has not been at his best of late. After posting a near-perfect 6-1 record along with a very respectable 1.59 ERA over his previous seven starts, he’s given up 14 runs in eight innings in back to back setbacks. A date vs. the Cards is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) has been at his best vs. St. Louis this year in going 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last four vs. them overall, 3-0 with a minute 1.35 ERA in three this season. The visitors counter with Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79 ERA) who returns from the disabled list to throw for the first time since June 17th; note that Wacha has gone winless in his last nine road starts and has dropped five consecutive decisions in Milwaukee. St. Louis has been extremely inconsistent on the road this year itself, it’s lost 10 of its last 15 away from friendly confines and I think comes out flat tonight. All of the ingredients are in place for MILWAUKEE to take advantage of and then when you throw in what I feel to be a very favorable line, there’s no question that the home side is the sharp wager in this contest.

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