Stephen Nover's Underdog Game of the Week

Stephen Nover's Underdog Game of the Week

Houston vs. Oakland, 08/07/2015 22:05 EDT, Score: 1 - 3

Money Line: +107 Oakland

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

Don't outthink yourself. Yes, the A's lose a lot of one-run games like they did last night and have a bad record against lefties and are facing a good one in Dallas Keuchel. But taking Sonny Gray as a home 'dog is a no-brainer for me.

Despite their extra-inning victory last night, the Astros are struggling on the road. They are 2-11 during their past 13 away contests. The Astros rely heavily on the home run and the venue here. Spacious O.co Coliseum, is not a good fit for the Astros.

Gray is having that breakout season. Not only does he have a 2.12 ERA, but his metrics are highly impressive, too, including a 2.89 FIP and one of the lowest line drive rates in baseball. Gray's ERA in his last three starts is 1.08. That trumps Keuchel. Houston has lost in five of Keuchel's last six road starts.

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